Decision making under uncertainty – Climate sensitivity and 2 degree target
Huge uncertainty in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
There remain huge uncertainties related to almost all aspects of climate change, including science, technology and economy.
- We are not sure of the future impacts of climate change whether there exists a particular temperature increase level (threshold) above which our society cannot tolerate.
- We are not sure whether and when unknown innovative technologies will emerge.
- We are not sure of the cost of mitigation and adaptation.
- We are not sure of the extent the global surface temperature will increase when the CO2 concentration will double.
The last one is the uncertainty of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), one of the most crucial uncertainties surrounding climate change...