International Framework for Tackling Climate Change


Prospects for NDCs and Incremental Action

Session background and objectives

The Paris Agreement stipulates in Article 3 that all Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts in terms of mitigation, adaption, financial resources, technology and capacity-building, as NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions). The Agreement further states that each party shall review and communicate, while undertaking the global stocktake in every five years, to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-term goals.

It would be very challenging to aim for further reduction from the level stated in NDCs, because NDCs are elaborated in accordance with individual countries’ domestic policies. Bearing in mind this nature of NDCs, simple imposition of further reduction in multilateral negotiation may lead to deadlock, and a more conductive approach will be desirable bearing in mind each country’s preference.

This session first aims to share the underlying policies of various NDCs, so as to understand the nature of NDCs. On the basis of this understanding, possible approaches to bring incremental action by individual countries will be discussed, as well as how to effectively organize global stocktake of the Paris Agreement.


Raymond J. Kopp

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Senior Fellow, Co-Director, Center for Energy and Climate Policy, Resources for the Future


Underlying Policies of Nationally Determined Contribution by U.S.A

This presentation will provide a brief overview of the NDC submitted by the USA and will describe the various components of the NDC. Challenges the USA faces in meeting the emission goals embodied in the NDC will be discussed along with a very brief review of government modeling tracking USA emissions to 2025 (the end-point of the current NDC). The presentation will conclude with a brief discussion of future policy actions the USA may undertake as it begins the process of developing its next INDC.

Keigo Akimoto

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Group Leader of Systems Analysis Group, Chief Researcher, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)


This presentation overviews the Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and how it was determined. The NDC includes 26% reduction of the GHG emission by 2030 compared to 2013, ensuring consistency with the energy mix plan for 2030. The energy mix plan was decided in 2015, seeking a better balance among safety, energy security, economics, and environment (S+3E) in the conditions after the nuclear power accident in 2011. The emission reduction target was determined for each sector in a bottom-up way, pursuing the achievements of high energy efficiency not only in industrial sector but also in transportation, residential and commercial sectors.

Sir David King


UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)


12 December 2022 – the date that the Paris Agreement was reached – was a great turning point for humanity. Sir David King’s speech will explore the extent to which the Paris Agreement is the solution, how far it goes, and how other agreements reached in the margins of Paris (including Mission Innovation) support the goal of net zero emissions. Sir David King will emphasise the UK Government’s ongoing commitment to tackling climate change and will provide an overview of the climate risk project which he has led.

David Victor


Professor of International Relations, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego (UCSD)


Prospects for effective joint action on climate change

Paris is a first step on a long road toward deep cooperation by nations. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) can reveal important information about what countries are willing and able to implement. Building an effective system for reviewing the NDCs will be essential to improving the quality of that information and to identifying places for cooperation to emerge. Independent parties, such as NGOs, can help provide the needed review functions that might be politically very difficult for the United Nations to supply. As well, cooperation is likely to emerge in small groups rather than involving all nations initially.

Ryuji Matsuhashi


Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo


Possibility of paradigm shift that brings international contribution

Paris agreement is a new international framework, in which all nations participate in voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for the first time in history. We first discuss a strategy for technology development and diffusion, taking the agreement into consideration. In particular, technologies for efficiency improvement and renewable energy are integrated in our framework to quantify a simple index, which we should realize for sustainable scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Then we introduce a novel concept, integrated contribution approach, which brings about international technology diffusion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as domestic technology development for further efficiency improvement.

Key words: Paris agreement, sustainable scenarios, a simple index, technology development and diffusion, integrated contribution approach


1. National preference of each country in the light of NDCs

  • The nature of underlying policies (e.g. energy policy, industrial policy) of NDCs
  • Specific preference of individual countries

2. Approaches for incremental action to the NDCs

  • Various possibilities of conductive approach that brings incremental action
  • Conditions and factors that enable incremental action

3. Desirable framework for global stocktake

  • Reviewing current UN negotiation about global stocktake
  • Expected framework and procedures in global stocktake

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